On Sunday, The New York Times unleashed two more Religious Right obituaries: Reporter David Kirkpatrick wrote a cover story about turmoil in the Religious Right for the Times Magazine, and columnist Frank Rich gloated over the so-called death of the Religious Right on the Opinion page.

I respect both of these guys. They know their stuff, and their articles over the years have been marked by a depth of knowledge and political savvy. But this time I must respectfully dissent. The Religious Right is not dead; indeed, the movement is not even wounded.

Claims that the Religious Right is on the ropes tend to rest on a few key arguments. One is the continued popularity of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani among Republican voters.

The easiest thing to say here is that the race is not over yet. Giuliani leads national polls, but those same polls show his support is rather soft. It's also telling that Giuliani is not leading among Republicans in Iowa, a state where the Religious Right dominates the GOP. In fact, he runs fourth, trailing Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee, all of whom have made a big play for the Religious Right vote.

The election is more than a year off. Although inside-the-Beltway political junkies obsess over every new poll and twist in the horse race, the fact remains that most Americans aren't yet engaged. This includes many Religious Right activists. With the Republican field wide open, it's not surprising that religious conservatives are lining up behind different candidates. The same pattern held true in 1988, 1996 and 2000.

The second argument for the supposed weakening of the Religious Right is the rise of a so-called moderate evangelicalism that focuses on issues like global warming and care of the poor.

There are indeed some signs of a broadening of issues among some evangelicals. But it remains to be seen how large this movement is or if it is anything more than a passing fad that has been overly hyped by the media. Certainly there are no national organizations pushing this line that can match national Religious Right groups dollar for dollar.

The leaders of this loose movement - Jim Wallis, Rick Warren and Bill Hybels among others - are often referred to in the media as moderates or even liberals. While they may take some moderate views on issues like climate change, Wallis, Warren and Hybels parrot the Religious Right line on social issues. To our knowledge, not one of them has ever voiced support for the wall of separation between church and state.

I'm skeptical of polls that purport to survey self-identified "evangelicals" and show them as less interested in core Religious Right issues like abortion and same-sex marriage. Many people view the term "evangelical" favorably and glom on to it. Not all who call themselves evangelicals are in sympathy with the Religious Right or even Republicans.

Other polls tell a different story. One recent poll found that 27 percent of Republican voters would bolt the party if a pro-choice candidate is nominated. It's a good bet these are Religious Right voters, and their defection from the GOP could not help but alter the dynamic of the race.

The recent "Values Voter Summit" is further evidence of the Religious Right's continued power. The turnout of more than 2,000 activists rivaled the numbers the Christian Coalition brought to Washington during its heyday. Every Republican candidate was there, pledging fealty to the Religious Right's pet issues. One wonders why they came to woo a dead movement.

We must also look at resources. A recent report by Americans United found that the nation's top Religious Right groups are better funded than ever. James Dobson's Focus on the Family took in $142.2 million in 2006, a $4.4 million increase over the previous year. Tony Perkins' Family Research Council took in $10.3 million in 2006, an increase of over $900,000 over the previous year.

It is true that some Religious Right leaders have died recently, notably Jerry Falwell and D. James Kennedy. But movement leaders come and go. Falwell's son, Jonathan, is already working to take his place. (The younger Falwell is mobilizing pastors on behalf of the GOP in state elections next month.) Behind the scenes, figures like far-right pastors Rick Scarborough and Rod Parsley are working to build a national presence.

I've worked at Americans United for 20 years. Claims that the Religious Right is dead sound familiar to me. The Religious Right supposedly died in 1989 when Falwell disbanded the Moral Majority. It died again in 1992 when Bill Clinton was elected president. Then it croaked once more in 1996 when Clinton was reelected. In 2000, The Economist declared the Religious Right D.O.A. on the eve of the election - just days before the movement helped put George W. Bush in the White House.

My guess is the Religious Right still has a few tricks up its sleeve. This Halloween and beyond, I'll be keeping my eyes open (and I suggest you do as well). We may think we've staked the monster, but chances are there's still something lurking in the dark shadows that lie ahead.